Federal Conservatives ahead by 7 points. Greens in the Toilet!

Nik on the Numbers

The latest Nanos poll shows that the Conservatives have recovered support lost over the summer and early fall. The Nanos national ballot stands at 38.1% for the Tories, 31.2% for the Liberals, 17.2% for the NDP, 10.2% for the BQ and 3.2% for the Green Party of Canada.
The current configuration of national support for the Conservatives suggests that numerically a Tory majority government can be formed without a significant breakthrough in the province of Quebec.
Although the Conservatives in the past have used various strategies to get to a majority, most recently the narrowcasting of issues suggests a new majority riding cluster strategy has emerged. In this paradigm, the Conservatives narrowcast messages to clusters of ridings on a diversity of issues such as crime, the long gun registry and social issues that align with their base and which divide the opposition. With a sweeping pan-Canadian mandate more difficult to attain, it would seem that the Conservatives are more focused on clusters of ridings and issues which divide the opposition to allow the Conservatives to divide the non-Harper universe.
In a sense, this is a variation of the Chretien-era strategy which saw the Liberals benefit from a division of the Conservatives (between the Canadians Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives) and allowed the Liberals to win a majority without hitting 40%.
Also of note, the Nanos national issue tracking poll shows that Jobs/Economy and Healthcare continue to dominate the top unprompted issue of concern among Canadians.
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Methodology
Nanos conducted a random telephone survey of 1,002 Canadians, 18 years of age and older, between November 29th and December 2nd, 2010. A survey of 1,002 Canadians is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. For 747 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.6 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Margins may be larger for smaller samples.
Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
The number in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between November 1st and November 5th, 2010.
National Committed Voters Only (n=747)
Conservative 38.1% (+1.0)
Liberal 31.2% (-0.4)
NDP 17.2% (+1.8)
BQ 10.2% (-0.6)
Green 3.2% (-2.0)
Undecided national: 25.4% (+6.2) of total voters surveyed
Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted]
The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between November 1st and November 5th, 2010.
Top Five Issues
Jobs/economy: 22.3% (-1.9)
Healthcare: 20.7% (-0.8)
The environment: 8.0% (-0.1)
High taxes: 4.4% (-1.4)
Education: 5.3% (-1.3)
Unsure: 15.2% (+4.3)
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