Harper near majority.

Nik Nanos recent poll suggects that if an election was held today, Prime Minister Harper would be very close to obtaining his goal of a majority government. It's not because Harper is a great Prime Minister, but it's because the other party leaders are very weak. The NDP leader is several areas surpasses the Liberal leader, which is not a good sign for the Liberal party.

Here's the results of the Nanos poll:

The wake of the Conservative attack ads has resulted in a 13 point national advantage for the Tories over the Grits. Of note, Conservative support significantly increased in the Prairies (AB, SK, MB) which suggests that the ads served to ramp up Conservative support in areas where the Tories were already strong.
Impressions of Harper as the federal leader who would make the best Prime Minister have also noticeably moved up six points since the fourth quarter of 2010. The percentage of Canadians who said "none of them (the party leaders)" would make the best Prime Minister has hit a four year high at 14%, with a particular increase in disaffection with the party leaders in the province of Ontario.
Leadership Index scores (based on trust, competence and vision) for Harper have significantly moved up in this wave of tracking, while scores for Michael Ignatieff have dropped behind Jack Layton.
The Conservative ad campaign has had an impact - increasing positive impressions of the Prime Minister, driving down impressions of Ignatieff and turning off some voters. What is interesting is that the national ballot suggests the Tories are moving into majority territory, but the regional distribution indicates that the ads have more likely consolidated support in core Conservative areas. Although the Liberals did have ads to respond to the Conservatives, the Liberal earned media strategy was not enough to counteract the bought media of the Tories. Of note, the results of the Tories do not necessarily translate into a permanent shift in their favour: Rather, these results are more likely a temporary advantage in part gained by the absence of opposition ad campaigns to counter attacks from the Tories.
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Methodology
To follow is a review of the latest Nanos national random telephone survey of 1,016 Canadians 18 years of age and older. It was completed between February 11th and February 14th, 2011. The statistics of a random sample of 1,016 respondents are accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. For 826 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Ballot Question:

For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only - First Preference)
Canada (n=826 decided voters)
Conservative 39.7%
Liberal 26.6%
NDP 18.9%
Bloc Quebecois 9.9%
Green 5%
Undecided 18.8%


Best Prime Minister Question:

Of the following individuals, who do you think would make the best Prime Minister?

The numbers in parentheses denote the one year change from the Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between November 1st and November 5th, 2010 (n=1,017).
Stephen Harper 34.5% (+6.1)
Jack Layton 14.3% (-2.1)
Michael Ignatieff 13.6% (-1.9)
Gilles Duceppe 6.0% (-2.8)
Elizabeth May 4.5% (-1.6)
None of them 13.9% (+2.7)
Unsure 13.3% (-0.4)


Leadership Index Questions:

As you may know, [Rotate] Michael Ignatieff is the leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Jack Layton is the leader of the federal NDP, Gilles Duceppe is leader of the Bloc Quebecois and Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as:
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from the Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between November 1st and and November 5th, 2010 (n=1,017).

Leadership Index Score:

Stephen Harper: 98.9 (+14)
Jack Layton: 43.6 (-2.5)
Michael Ignatieff: 36.9 (-8.2)
Gilles Duceppe: 17.7 (-7.6)
Elizabeth May: 12.7 (-2.1)


The Most Trustworthy Leader:

Stephen Harper: 29.1% (+4.8)
Jack Layton: 16.7% (-0.2)
Michael Ignatieff: 10.9% (-3.4)
Gilles Duceppe: 7.7 % (-2.0)
Elizabeth May: 5.8% (-0.8)
None of them/Undecided: 29.8% (+1.7)
The Most Competent Leader:
Stephen Harper: 36.9% (+4.2)
Michael Ignatieff: 12.7% (-2.0)
Jack Layton: 12.1% (-1.7)
Gilles Duceppe: 6.9% (-1.4)
Elizabeth May: 2.6% (-0.9)
None of them/Undecided: 28.9% (+1.8)


The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada's Future:

Stephen Harper: 32.9% (+5)
Jack Layton: 14.8% (-0.6)
Michael Ignatieff: 13.3% (-2.8)
Elizabeth May: 4.3% (-0.4)
Gilles Duceppe: 3.1% (-4.2)
None of them/Undecided: 31.8% (+3.3)
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