Time for me to focus on politics in my neck of the woods for a bit. If you live in the riding of Simcoe-Grey I'm sure you've heard that Conservative MP, Helena Guergis was not only removed as a Minister of the Crown, but was also thrown out of the Conservative party by the Prime Minister.
With a Federal election in Canada most likely to take place in the spring right after the release of the Federal budget in March 2011, all ridings across Canada need to prepare for an election. In my riding of Simcoe Grey we already have a Liberal Candidate, the Green Party is seeking a new Candidate as Stuart Starbuck the candidate decided to take a shot at Municipal politics, but did not win. The NDP still have to select a new candidate, and the Conservatives already have 2 people seeking the nomination. The first person to throw their hat into the ring is Dr. Kellie Leitch, an orthopedic surgeon. The next person is soon to be former Mayor of Collingwood, Chris Carrier.
I don't know much about Dr. Leitch, except she owns property in our riding, and is considered a parachute candidate, and a well known activist in Conservative circles. A friend of mine who's a strong Conservative supporter, yes I have Conservative friends...Anyway he received a call from Dr. Leitch to ask for his support. My friend told me that she was very well spoken and cared about his issues. He owns a Nursing home in our riding.
On the other side of the coin is Chris Carrier, and I know a bit about this guy. He was elected Mayor of Collingwood back in 2006. When he was elected the town of Collingwood had a debt of close to 18 million By the time he leaves office the town's debt will be over 52 million dollars. His time in office was not an easy one for the other members of council and the residents of Collingwood. Council meetings would go on for hours, members of council would walk out or threaten to quit, fighting was the norm around the council table during his time as Mayor. One can only come to the conclusion that he knew he would not be re-elected given how much he was disliked, so he decided to go into Federal politics.
Like Dr. Leitch was calling around to Conservative supporters, so was Chris Carrier, and my friend also received a call from him. The conversation was very short with my friend tellinng him he has not a hope in hell of winning the nomination given what he's done to the town of Collingwood in 4 short years.
So where does all this leave Helena Guergis? Well she intends to run as an Independant Conservative, which means that this is the best chance for the Liberals or even the Greens if they have a strong candidate to win this riding. The experts on polling have her support around 7-10% which is enough to tip the balance of power in our riding. However given that her cousins, and her sister were defeated in the October municipal elections, I peg her percentage of support to be in the 3-5% range, and if I were her I would leave politics for awhile, take care of her family, and then re-group and come back strong for the next election. Well I doubt she'll take my advice, but if she wants to go down in flames, I don't mind seeing that either.
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